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The pundits are out and it’s that time of year to make your predictions of where the digital world is heading. We have scoured the web to bring you WordUp! Online’s collection of prediction for 2008. Remember, a lot of these predictions are centred on the U.S and European markets, however, the effect will be felt in Australia.
Prediction 1
A user-generated news portal will launch and become the most highly trafficked news Web site in the world. Google will purchase it and finally do what they said they wanted no part of becoming a content producer. But they will do so without hiring a single writer.
Prediction 2
Growth in online media spending will outpace that of any other measured media – its predicted online ad spending will grow at nearly four times the rate of the overall advertising economy during 2008. This will particularly be seen in Australia. The Australian marketplace have yet realised the potential (and even function) of search engine marketing and will soon accept it as part of its overall marketing mix.
Prediction 3
The auto industry will spend at least 8% of its advertising budget more than $3 billion in total on digital advertising.
Prediction 4
Now that the Federal Trade Commission (USA) has approved the Google-DoubleClick deal, it appears that the online ad industry is poised to enter a new phase in which one big company controls the bulk of advertising revenues. There's a lot at stake in this merger, and so many players at risk, so expect the controversy over monopoly power in the online ad business to heat up to white-hot levels in the first months of 2008.
The following two predictions will play out over the next 2-5 years…
Prediction 5
Just as Old Media may be entering its terminal stage, New Media is about to exit its carefree adolescent period, in which its major properties had carte blanche to do whatever they pleased with the data they collected on users. Its firmly believe we will soon reach a point wherein certain online properties (perhaps Google or maybe Facebook) will have the same status as public utilities and be subject to regulation to protect the public's fleeting privacy rights. I don't expect this to happen in '08 but you're going to hear more and more talk from lawmakers about what's wrong in this industry and how Uncle Sam can fix it.
In addition, the National Do-Not-Track Movement Gathers Steam. Industry lobbyists campaigned against the national Do-Not-Call Registry (in the U.S & Australia), and yet it's been a whopping success for consumers. The same lobbyists are now lobbying against a proposed law that makes even more sense in the online arena, because it would require users to explicitly opt-into any tracking schemes hatched by ISPs, online properties, or search engines. Lots of users don't understand how exactly the online ad industry "bugs" their Web use, but they do understand what "Do Not Track" means, and I'd expect this movement to gather steam in 2008, which will shake up a lot of plans hatched for behavioral targeting and other tracking-based ad schemes.
Prediction 6
Revolt of the Contextual Partners –
Google makes a lot of money from contextual advertising - about 40% of its revenue, and yet many of these partners are plainly unhappy with the cut they're getting from Google. 2008 may be the year that these Adsense partners demand a fairer share of Google's revenue, or at least more disclosure about the cut that Google is taking from them (it's widely rumored that Google gives a much bigger cut to its larger partners than the Mum and Pa sites). Unfortunately, many Adsense partners don't realize how much leverage they have, or they'd be more likely to stand up for a fairer revenue stake.
Prediction 7
Yahoo Gets Focused –
2007 was a tumultuous year for Yahoo, but 2008 may be the year that it gets its mojo back. It's clear that its management has come to the realization that Yahoo can't be "all things to all people," and my hope is that it can agree on those core properties, which make up the heart and soul of Yahoo and invest in them appropriately. Frankly, all Yahoo has to do is keep Google playing catch-up ball in a few key areas and it can win the battle. If anybody's "spread too thin like peanut butter" these days, it's Google, not Yahoo.
Prediction 8
Online Ads Get Intrusive (Again)
In the last six months, online display ads seem to have reverted to their ugly circa-2000 selves, with pop-unders, pop-overs, takeovers and other intrusive behavior that would have been unthinkable a year ago. Now, we're told that "widgets" are soon going to be added to this smorgasbord of intrusive interactivity. So much for the "relevance revolution" of a few years back; instead, look for 2008 to become the "irrelevance renaissance" in adware.
Prediction 9
Retail E-Commerce – Alternative online payment methods to credit and debit cards, such as PayPal, Google Checkout and Bill Me Later, will gain traction with Web retailers and consumers. Online retailers like these options because they save on processing fees, and research shows that offering several payment options increases conversion rates. Consumers like having more choices and feel more secure about making online transactions.
Prediction 10
Online Music – Music labels and marketers step up their experimentations with new and emerging business models as the CD continues to fade into oblivion. Expect to see more ad-supported sites, monthly subscription services, full-track mobile download offerings and use of social networks as music discovery and sales tools.
Labels have no choice but to continue to relax their policies toward digital-rights management, inching the market closer to an unprotected MP3 standard. |
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